On Monday morning, the hockey world was shocked by Connor McDavid – and not in the usual, on-ice, jaw-dropping performance way that he usually brings to the table. Instead, the surprise came via a contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers, that will give them at least a couple more kicks at Stanley Cup contention in the coming years.
Depending on what your hopes and expectations were, the fact that an extension was signed at all might not have been the shocking part. Sure, fans in a handful of markets (particularly those in his hometown) held out some wishful thinking that the 28-year-old was counting down the days to pack his bags, but a more rational person would realize that this isn’t the same situation for McDavid as it was on, say, draft lottery night ten years ago. He’s grown up, he has roots in town now, his teammates are familiar rather than theoretical, and the Oilers are back-to-back conference champions rather than perennial losers. Sure, it was possible that he could prefer another spot, but there didn’t seem to be much reason to expect him to race for the door.
In my article about Kirill Kaprizov’s record-setting contract extension last week, I expressed my own skepticism that McDavid would leave Edmonton, or that he would chase a deal that would “take back the crown”:
In McDavid’s case in particular, I see a player that’s come hauntingly close to the promised land twice now, and is determined to get across the finish line, both for his personal drive and for the sake of his legacy. Smashing the contract record is great for the bag and is arguably his responsibility as a union worker – at least, more so than balancing his GM’s budget for him – but the hard salary cap comes with realities.
My ultimate guess with McDavid remains that he stays with the Oilers, and that the waiting came here is to create urgency to keep building towards a winner. Nothing he does on the ice this season will change his ability to get a blank cheque for blank years, so he’s in no rush to sign any paperwork.
With that said, I was off on a couple of points here, and one of them is where the real shock has come around the league.
The first point, and maybe this was only half-wrong, was about the waiting game. I thought there was a possiblity that this would stretch out longer, seeing McDavid sign his deal around the trade deadline, once he felt comfortable that the team had done everything they could to put themselves in a winning situation in the short to medium term. Particularly, I thought he’d wait for them to make one more big swing for a higher-end player.
Instead, it seems like trading for Connor Ingram (just prior) and extending Jake Walman (announced at the same time) and Mattias Ekholm (announced this morning) was enough for him. Which, if you think the team is a true threat to keep winning in the West, you think that Ingram is capable of bouncing back to where he was a couple years ago, may be enough to get them the last couple wins they need in June. I thought he might wait for more, but fair play to him.
The second, and most shocking point, is that I felt that while he would resist the urge to blow Kaprizov’s $17,000,000 annual average value out of the water, I still felt that he would jump him on the leaderboard. Ultimately, he’s still the best player in the world, and one of the best players we’ve ever seen. If anyone deserves to pick their price, it’s him, and if you’re the NHLPA, you probably want your golden goose to keep moving the ceiling forward. My guess was that we’d see something similar to when Nathan MacKinnon eclipised McDavid’s last deal – a $100,000 clearance that seemingly existed just to set a new benchmark.
The real shock for most of us came in the fact that he came in nowhere close to that pricetag. Not only did McDavid not set the new benchmark, he didn’t even taek a raise, staying at his current $12,500,000 AAV for two more years beyond this one.
Now, the fact that it’s only a two-year deal is obviously what makes that possible. McDavid will still be in high demand at 30 in just about any scenario, and the salary cap ceiling will be upwards of $120 million come 2028/29, assuming nothing happens to derail the financial growth of the league before then. He’ll be in a great position to cash out when the breathing room is ample. Two years also gives a veteran Oilers group three more kicks at this can before he can decide if a better hockey situation is available elsewhere.
But still – no raise is shocking. Some may not want to hear that playing a sport for $12.5 million USD per year can be defined as a sacrifice, but when you look at it through the lens of the three forms of contract value we discussed with Kaprizov – performance value added, peer-relative value, and marketability, there really is no other way to describe this deal than that.
Dom Luszczyszyn’s projection model has McDavid’s market value at $18.8 million, while AFP Analytics puts him at at least $16.4 million (albeit at a four year term). Even these are arguable undersells, given that we’re talking about a 1-of-1 talent. McDavid will start his first season making 60% of the maximum single-player salary, and 74% of the cap hit of the highest-paid player. Perhaps the most important percentage, though, is 12.02%, which is his share of the salary cap ceiling at the time of signing.
While McDavid will carry the same salary next year as he makes this year, his current contract was an eight-year deal which began all the way back in 2018/19. At the time of signing, his first year carried a 15.7% share of the cap, which still wasn’t the highest the league had seen in the salary cap era. Even then, one could argue that he would’ve been fair to ask for a bigger piece of his team’s pie. Even without term, taking 12% today is still unprecedented for a player of his calibre. If you look at his cap era comparables as Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, and Auston Matthews, none of them fell below 13.5% of the salary cap until the first three signed their late-30’s contracts. Crosby’s 13.5% deal, the lowest of the bunch signed in their 20’s, was a twelve-year, heavily front-loaded deal signed while Crosby was struggling with head and neck injuries, meaning his career a decade and change ahead was unknown. Had he been healthy and not in a spot where playing beyond 34 was considered more of a certainty, you probably see him look for a steeper cut, or at a shorter term and a steeper fourth contract.
To put McDavid’s 12% landing spot into context, here’s what he would be making if he signed this deal at any point in the salary cap era:
| Year | Ceiling | McAAV | Rk | Highest | Top Deal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | $39.0M | $4.7M | 17th | $8.0M | M. Brodeur** |
| 2006/07 | $44.0M | $5.3M | 21st | $7.9M | J. Jagr** |
| 2007/08 | $50.3M | $6.1M | 20th | $7.8M | B. Richards |
| 2008/09 | $56.7M | $6.8M | 16th | $9.5M | A. Ovechkin |
| 2009/10 | $56.8M | $6.8M | 17th | $9.5M | A. Ovechkin |
| 2010/11 | $59.4M | $7.1M | 15th | $9.5M | A. Ovechkin |
| 2011/12 | $64.3M | $7.7M | 6th | $9.5M | A. Ovechkin |
| 2012/13 | $70.2M | $8.4M | 4th | $9.5M | A. Ovechkin |
| 2013/14 | $64.3M | $7.7M | 10th | $9.5M | A. Ovechkin |
| 2014/15 | $69.0M | $8.3M | 7th | $9.5M | A. Ovechkin |
| 2015/16 | $71.4M | $8.6M | 9th | $10.5M | J. Toews / P. Kane |
| 2016/17 | $73.0M | $8.8M | 8th | $10.5M | J. Toews / P. Kane |
| 2017/18 | $75.0M | $9.0M | 7th | $10.5M | J. Toews / P. Kane |
| 2018/19 | $79.5M | $9.6M | 8th | $12.5M | C. McDavid |
| 2019/20 | $81.5M | $9.8M | 15th | $12.5M | C. McDavid |
| 2020/21 | $81.5M | $9.8M | 15th | $12.5M | C. McDavid |
| 2021/22 | $81.5M | $9.8M | 15th | $12.5M | C. McDavid |
| 2022/23 | $82.5M | $9.9M | 15th | $12.5M | C. McDavid |
| 2023/24 | $83.5M | $10.0M | 12th | $12.6M | N. MacKinnon |
| 2024/25 | $88.0M | $10.6M | 13th | $13.3M | A. Matthews |
| 2025/26 | $95.5M | $11.5M | 12th | $14.0M | L. Draisaitl |
| 2026/27 | $104.0M | $12.5M | 5th | $17.0M | K. Kaprizov |
** Pre-cap contracts with post-cap expiries, partially rolled back
The only seasons where McDavid’s 12% would represent a top-five contract in the league are 2012/13, where the ceiling number used is inflated due to the partial-season lockout which began the year, and next season, where he could theoretically be knocked down the list by an upcoming free-agent (with Kyle Connor re-upping for a $12,000,000 AAV this morning, this responsiblity would go to Jack Eichel or Artemi Panarin). Typically, signing a 12% contract would slide you into about the 10-15th range of league-wide deals.
Certainly impressive money, until you remember that we’re talking about a player who, in ten years, has won three MVPs, been a finalist three more times, won four Ted Lindsays, five scoring titles, a rocket, and a Conn Smythe. A player who, since his first day in the league, has led the league in coring by nearly 150 points, over 0.1 points per game, and nearly 100 even strength points. In a league of superstars, he’s a supernova, and he’s taking high-star to low-superstar money.
Short term be damned, this deal is one of the biggest haircuts that the league has ever seen. It’s such a team-friendly, win-now move, that it almost borders on being a problem. Every team in the league will be going to their players and saying “if Connor can do this, why can’t you?”, through either salary, term, or both. It’ll be interesting to this is the opposite end of the outlier spectrum to Kaprizov’s deal – one a masterclass in maximizing leverage to get the bag, and one a precedent-shattering favour to his team.
One thing’s for sure, though – the pressure is on the Oilers to make this work now. The discount here effectively cancels out any other contract inefficiencies throughout the lineup, and they now have all of their top talent locked up for three more cracks at glory. If this doesn’t put them in a position to get there, I’m not sure what will.
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